We propose a new uncertainty estimator for gradient-free optimisation of black-box simulators using deep generative surrogate models. Optimisation of these simulators is especially challenging for stochastic simulators and higher dimensions. To address these issues, we utilise a deep generative surrogate approach to model the black box response for the entire parameter space. We then leverage this knowledge to estimate the proposed uncertainty based on the Wasserstein distance - the Wasserstein uncertainty. This approach is employed in a posterior agnostic gradient-free optimisation algorithm that minimises regret over the entire parameter space. A series of tests were conducted to demonstrate that our method is more robust to the shape of both the black box function and the stochastic response of the black box than state-of-the-art methods, such as efficient global optimisation with a deep Gaussian process surrogate.

In recent years, solving optimization problems involving black-box simulators has become a point of focus for the machine learning community due to their ubiquity in science and engineering. The simulators describe a forward process $f_{\mathrm{sim}}: (\psi, x) \rightarrow y$ from simulation parameters $\psi$ and input data $x$ to observations $y$, and the goal of the optimization problem is to find parameters $\psi$ that minimize a desired loss function. Sophisticated optimization algorithms typically require gradient information regarding the forward process, $f_{\mathrm{sim}}$, with respect to the parameters $\psi$. However, obtaining gradients from black-box simulators can often be prohibitively expensive or, in some cases, impossible. Furthermore, in many applications, practitioners aim to solve a set of related problems. Thus, starting the optimization ``ab initio", i.e. from scratch, each time might be inefficient if the forward model is expensive to evaluate. To address those challenges, this paper introduces a novel method for solving classes of similar black-box optimization problems by learning an active learning policy that guides a differentiable surrogate's training and uses the surrogate's gradients to optimize the simulation parameters with gradient descent. After training the policy, downstream optimization of problems involving black-box simulators requires up to $\sim$90\% fewer expensive simulator calls compared to baselines such as local surrogate-based approaches, numerical optimization, and Bayesian methods.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Width-based planning has shown promising results on Atari 2600 games using pixel input, while using substantially fewer environment interactions than reinforcement learning. Recent width-based approaches have computed feature vectors for each screen using a hand designed feature set or a variational autoencoder (VAE) trained on game screens, and prune screens that do not have novel features during the search. In this paper, we explore consideration of uncertainty in features generated by a VAE during width-based planning. Our primary contribution is the introduction of active learning to maximize the utility of screens observed during planning. Experimental results demonstrate that use of active learning strategies increases gameplay scores compared to alternative width-based approaches with equal numbers of environment interactions.

Bayesian optimisation has been successfully applied to a variety of reinforcement learning problems. However, the traditional approach for learning optimal policies in simulators does not utilise the opportunity to improve learning by adjusting certain environment variables: state features that are unobservable and randomly determined by the environment in a physical setting but are controllable in a simulator. This paper considers the problem of finding a robust policy while taking into account the impact of environment variables. We present Alternating Optimisation and Quadrature (ALOQ), which uses Bayesian optimisation and Bayesian quadrature to address such settings. ALOQ is robust to the presence of significant rare events, which may not be observable under random sampling, but play a substantial role in determining the optimal policy. Experimental results across different domains show that ALOQ can learn more efficiently and robustly than existing methods.